Religions and Presidential Elections in the USA

Catholics have long been an important force in American electoral politics even if they make up 21% of the Ame- rican population. Could they be, compared to the other religious denominations, the game changer of the next elections? Once a vital and loyal component of the New Deal Democratic coalition, Catholics in recent decades have shifted their political loyalties away from the Demo- cratic Party to more of a partisan equilibrium. Anglo-Catho- lics were strongly Democratic in the 1940s, with that parti- sanship reaching a peak in the Kennedy election of 1960, before receding signi cantly thereafter. By 2012, they were almost evenly distributed on the political spectrum; the historical Democratic advantage had disappeared. In comparison, their Latino brethren have exhibited strong Democratic tendencies over the past three decades, and their growing numbers suggest rising political importance. At the same time, by 2012, the White Catholic vote had become predominantly Republican, even in a year in which a Democrat was re-elected to the White House, and on balance party identi cation among these voters showed a slight Republican edge. Only the growing contingent of Latino Catholics kept the national vote of the entire religious community closely balanced. Latino Protestants, a growing segment of the Latino community, are more likely to vote Republican than their Catholic compatriots, giving George W. Bush over 60% of their vote in 2004, before reverting to majorities for Obama in 2008 and 2012, perhaps in response to GOP policy on immigration.